tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg March 4, 2017 8:00am-9:01am EST
♪ on "bloomberg best" the stories that shaped the weekend business around the world. >> the dow talking 21,000 for the first time. recordsts reached new and investors responded to donald trump optimistic tone of congress. effort to taken an restore job crushing regulations. >> but did his message fan the flame of the current market rally? >> healthier markets are things he is hoping for. >> the public equity market enjoys what the president is talking about. >> with recent economic growth translates a rate hike? the ides of march or nearly upon us. >> the markets have been itching
to raise rates for a while. >> there will not be a hike on march 15, but i could understand why the odds climbed. >> it changes at the world's largest hedge fund. ray is stepping down. >> a lot of news coming out of bridgewater from ray dalio. i would lead with john rubenstein leaving as the co-chief executive officer. snap. aw current company snap began --ded -- trading company parent company snap began trading publicly. that is all ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ >> welcome. matt millerllen -- in berlin. this is "bloomberg best."
let's take a day by day look at the top headlines starting with monday when a proposed $12 billion exchange merger teetered on the brink of failure. deutsche bought -- made an attempt -- are saying that politics will ultimately kill this deal, but it turns out that it was a regulator. >> they asked him whether they could divest an electric trading platform for european government bonds. they already agreed to sell their french housing unit. the london stock exchange said they did not think it was want to happen, so they have to week for the commission to come back at the end of this month. they are saying the chances of
this going through are looking not so good. >> is it a brexit casualty? >> does brexit have a role to play, absolutely. they announced the deal before brexit a month brexit happened, it was a debate about if you merge, where is the headquarters going to become a right? if it is in london and they are outside the european union, but if it is in frankfurt, it is not helping them. there has been so much politics around it as well. [applause] let's listen as the president against a deliver his address. pres. trump: i am here to deliver a message of unity and strength, and it is a message deeply delivered from a heart. in the last eight years, past administrations have put on more new debt the nearly all of the other presidents combined. we have lost more than one fourth of our manufacturing jobs
since nafta was approved, and we have lost 60,000 factory since china joined the world trade organization in 2001. i believe strongly in free trade. but it also has to be fair trade. >> what can we anticipate? what is your first item on your to do list, mr. secretary, and what will you -- and what will be some of the policy initiatives? >> much tougher enforcement. >> about china as well? >> everybody, everybody. >> getting back to breaking news on bridgewater associates. galliano is stepping down as interim -- ray dalio is stepping down as interim cofounder. onc, your first thoughts something that is further into this letter. john rubenstein is leaving. >> a lot of big news coming out
of bridgewater and a statement from ray dalio. i would start with john rubenstein leaving. john rubenstein was an unusual higher less than a year ago for bridgewater. you may remember, he was a key lieutenant of steve jobs at apple and helped design the imac and the ipod. andeft apple years ago joint bridgewater last year. ray dalio described as both leadership and is technology. palio. john rubenstein would be a good fit because he worked with steve jobs in an environment that celebrated disagreement and friction. that is what goes on inside bridgewater and that's why he thought john rubenstein would work out well there. dump rubenstein did not in his exit is precipitating a number of important changes at bridgewater. ray dalio is getting out of bridgewater management by april 15 and david mccormick who is
minute the firm for eight years, you may remember under george w. bush, is being elevated to co-ceo with eileen murray, formally of morgan stanley, also who has a deep background in technology. as you can hear around may, the buzz is building. people are excited. they want to see what the shares are going to be trading at a we are hearing they are closing. the people around me -- there we have it. we are at $24. remember, this is a big uptick. up on talking about a 40% the share price. much excitement. the guys telling me that was 24 million shares being traded at 12% on the 200 million that were put into the market by snap. more tech ipos maybe two,.
>> -- more tech ipos maybe to come. >> the odds of a fed hike in march were low. it is one of those weeks in that the fed changes the changes it own minds and changed the mind of the public to go from a high chance to a low chance of a march move. >> janet yellen speaking at 1:00 p.m. on what she might say about march. you can see what the markets are saying. the probability of a rate hike is now a 90%. what is going to be the word that signals march from janet yellen today? >> she does not have to prepare markets for march. if she does not like the idea of a march rate hike, she has to lean massively against it. that would be her jump right now she wanted to take markup the table. it is curious that a committee that have been pounding the table that we should look at the
data, and then make this u-turn within a couple of days without any valid data. >> the committee will evaluate whether employment or inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations. in which case, a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. nonetheless, as we have said many times, and if my discussion today demonstrates, monetary policy cannot be, and is not on a preset course. as in 2015 and 2016, the committee stands ready to adjust its assessment of the appropriate path for monetary policy if unanticipated developments materially change the economic outlook. ♪ ahead as we review the week on bloomberg best, starbucks makes its italian y.but with an upscale roastar
♪ >> this is "bloomberg best." i'm matt miller. for ofntinue our global the week's top business stories with elections and political theater throughout europe. and how the uncertainty is affecting the financials? >> let's get to european politics. prime minister theresa may getting ready for a itron two fronts with scotland's government which is expected to
call another referendum vote. debated inernment the house of lords. meanwhile in france, candidate and metal macron opening up his biggest lead yet -- candidate emmanuel macron opening up his biggest lead yet. was that times referendum story nothing? it did not go up and much. the debate over stalin remains the forefront of people -- the debate over scotland remains the forefront of people's mines. the pound's move was exaggerated. >> it seems like we had a little bit of an easing to risk over the weekend. what exactly happened? >> basically, the gap between
the independent macron and --ine le pen is two points macron is two point behind the pen. some of investors are concerned. france yields are pushing to a five-week low as french bonds are rising following this news over the past two days. with the french and german elections, people get so obsessed with these elections that they just lose focus on company's ability to generate cash and matter what the outcome of the elections are. >> do you wind up protecting yourself because the french election is a risk. is there a trigger that you mind up reversing your view? >> we try to measure how the impact of the french election would have on our company's cash
streams. a lot of companies based in france, most of their business is outside of france. even bnp has huge businesses in italy and may have bank of the west and the united states. instability this causes pressure on the euro, which again, you take that hit , you take a currency hit, but those multinational companies get an earnings enhancement from their foreign-based earnings if they have a weak local currency like the euro. this is one of the ways this political instability and volatility manifests itself is in a weak euro. we do watch these things. if currencies are way overvalued, it is developed -- determined by ppe.
we are bottom-up long-term investors trying to identify good companies that for some reason are out of favor. on ahat reason is often political event. >> when do we see the u.s. banks start buying on european banks that are dirt cheap? >> i think you are going to see that, in my view. 2018cenario could happen to 2019 if we work to have a stable political union. you get out of the election in france, the netherlands, and -- at thatuming point, there is massive value in europe and you will start seeing , in my view, u.s. banks looking at -- alternatively, jpmorgan does not have a european onshore regulated entity. are operating out of the
london bank. to do business in europe, jpmorgan will need an onshore regulated bank. you will see more and more of the need to be resident in your. -- need to be present in europe. >> how many banks will be left five to 10 years from now? >> in some countries, there are too many banks. in german and italy, there are too many banks. if we look at the u.s. as a model, we could see the future, which is not too far away, maybe something like 10 important banks in europe, and smaller banks like in the u.s. so, if we want to go to the markets -- if we want the markets to support our clients like theyurope support in the u.s., you need banks to operate cross-border,
and there are too many obstacles. >> this would be a combination of two strong banks? if you put two dinosaurs together, you will not make a strong bank. >> the survival of the fittest. we are competing with the u.s. europe is much more open than the u.s. to competition. this is going to be an issue that we are going to look at very closely. have an opens field in europe. it is been tough of european banks lately. >> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon is speaking at the bank's investor day taking questions from strategy to regulation. regulation, it is high time we look at it. no one in their mind could say what we do is completely rational and perfect. we're not fanatics about it.
we know there was a crisis. >> he spoke about regulation wanting more rational regulation and wanting perhaps a tightening of the boko rule or some redefinition of it. you could expect potentially some small legislation. some small legislation to redefine it. he talked about tax a form that it would be good for america. he has been careful to say, i am not concerned. in terms of regulation and reform, he says, i am concerned with what is good for america. he says that is why he has participated in very is advisory capacities to the president. he also talked about that if wages are higher and they rise, that 5 million people could, back to the job market. he talked about that regulation has been -- overregulation has been an issue for small business formation. he says there is a lot of reasons that people may not want
to own 10 year treasuries. will someone get hurt, he says? can get hurts they but they will not be systemic. >> following this event, bloomberg banking at wall street , laura keller joins us. a lot of different topics. what do you view is a most important? that jamie dimon says about the consumer and economy is what the want to hear from the bank's side because he does not say a lot about trading . it talked about modest gains that they are seen so far this quarter from last year's q1. for reasons of what we are going to see at other banks? economy and the what is the consumer doing these days? president trump in the fed
reef lighting the inflation trading you can see it reflected in bank shares. up 23% and look for another big jump. bank of america up 2%. do you want to buy the banks here or do you want to sell them? i would be more of a seller than a buyer. i do not buy the reflation narrative for the banks. that implies that we will have rising rates and that would apply at some point, the highly leveraged corporate world and the consumer world may see writing debt levels. -- raising debt levels. from the retailing sector, there are huge pricing competitions emerging in the sectors would swap infidelity. pricing pressures will come to the u.s. financials. >> you are making commentary on the u.s. treasury market? some are saying that is the
wrong call. the positioning is positioning for a reflation trade. if you really think we are at 2360, we should be a 3% on the 10 year yield. is dissidentrket from what the bond market is seen in terms of the real economic progress of buoyancy to come. >> governor patel did mention express concerns about potential shifts to protectionism. how do you see the trump administration impact india had to therk >> -- trump administration impacting india? >> that is a point of concern whether we will be welcome or not. the strength of the u.s. has been it openness and it ability to attract the best talent from everywhere. i do not think the u.s. will give up that strength they have
has created a business plan over the years that was based on the balance of profit in social impact. offered health insurance in college tuition. we gave housing allowance are employees traveling long distances. view isy decision in my economic. mission is president financial performance, but i do not wake up every day saying, how are we going to make more money? i wake up every day saying, how can he really create a deep sense of loyalty with our people and our customers based on our values, principles? we are living in the world today that is very fragile. there is a lot of uncertainty. we have an obligation and a responsibility as a company to add value to humanity.
and if i could say it in my own -- this is a time where i think we as private citizens and is businesspeople need to build bridges, not walls. francine: is that why you announced the hiring of 10,000 refugees. ? decisioneeting -- that was not a political decision, but based on the values of our company. thatieve very strongly your station in life, sexual preference, color of your skin, country you were born in, should not define the opportunities that we have as people. if starbucks as a company can create an environment where down for no real spirit -- when the entrepreneurial spirit is based on merit, i think we are doing a pretty good job and that is what
i want to do is a company. francine: do you see the fabric of america changing? optimisticll very about america. we are clearly going through a inflectionan point politically, but i am the quintessential optimistic that and theican dream -- quintessential optimistic about the american dream. francine: do you think a lot of ceos will follow suit and what you are doing? >> more and more people in my said we have a responsibility not just to make money but added value back to our society and the people we employ. matt: we got more compelling conversation coming up on "bloomberg best." despite thek is -- indictment of the owner on bribery and embezzlement. and deutsche telecom talk about 5g from the mobile world congress in barcelona and appear
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♪ matt: this is "bloomberg best." i am matt miller. many of our interviews on bloomberg television this week touched on technology, whether the potential of 5g or regulation. our first story however has to do with scandal and the world's largest phone maker, samsung. >> samsung's de facto leader may have to wait months to stand trial for corruption. jay y. lee has been indicted on bribery and embezzlement. what happens to the group while he is behind bars? let's bring in rosalind chin. what is next? are things going to be on hold?
>> jay y. lee is the vice-chairman of samsung electronics and samsung group. it's not like we will see phones stopping made. the company says there will be co-ceos that do their best to run the company as best as possible and keep operations going as best they can, but it is these leaders we have seen dealing with issues with the company, the note 7 crisis last year, but it is more likely to affect bigger strategic decisions, things like an acquisition, management reshuffle. those are the areas where we might see as slowing down in decision making because a jay y. lee is caught up with the legal issues he is facing.
the korean special prosecutor's office said that samsung was directly related to the scandal. samsung denies any wrongdoing in that. >> this isn't the kind of thing they teach people in business school how to deal with. at the group level, there has been an impact on the corporate strategy office. what does this mean? >> this strategy office was at the group level. this is something the samsung group announced yesterday. this department was linked to the corruption investigation, so the vice-chairman and president and i did yesterday. -- both indicted yesterday. they both resigned. if you look at history, leaders have been in jail before, convicted of crimes, and still managed to lead their conglomerates. analysts, 41 buys, one hold, and one sell.
>> let's talk about what is happening in barcelona today. telecoms coming together to push for next-gen high-speed mobile networks. they have put their names to a statement while congress outlining their commitment to get 5g done and dusted. .> so much buzz about 5g you're one of those who wants it faster into our hands. realistic? forhank you, first of all, coming here. 5g is starting to happening. it is not mean it is commercially deployed yet, but operators are positioning their 4g networks and evolving into 5g, and that is where we can get a lot of learning and
experiences for the future. >> 5g is the topic of deutsche telekom. it is not just a new network we are building. it is a totally new thing. it is an infrastructure gaining 1000 more percent capacity, 100 times faster than the original network, and 10 times quicker response time, so a lot of technology coming to the people. >> how does that help deutsche telekom? will it be health care? >> we have been building infrastructure on people, but now we are connecting all devices. 50 billion devices will be connected in our infrastructure in 2020. >> the wireless marketplace is extremely competitive.
after the ftc stopped its investigation of free data offerings, all for wire carries have unlimited data plans. -- all 4 wireless carriers in the united states announced unlimited data plans. that is good for consumers. our focus will always be what is in the public interest. if it is, we would be more favorably inclined to approve the deal. >> china is allowing more companies to list 18 months after clamping down on the market. is this a signal from the securities regulator that we have turned the corner? >> yes, they want to see more ipo's happening, and that should support the chinese economy. they are saying for what china calls appropriately larger supplies of ipos after a stronger than expected recovery from the 2015 market route, $5 trillion wiped out there, so it has taken some time to recover from that and enough that regulators think we can release the floodgates of little bit more for ipos.
600 company seeking approval. 280 approved last year of only 248 completed. stability, but a stable capital market is required for it to go through. >> snap has started trading, the first tech ipo of the year, and the shares are zooming out of the gates. let's go to the floor of the new york stock exchange. caroline hyde, you have a special guest for us? >> it is the president of the new york stock exchange. congratulations. 50% uptick almost in one day, of people questioning that there is too much money left on the table? >> my job is not to opine on the market value. my job was to get this ipo off in great fashion. i take great comfort that the
stock opened at $24 and is trading smoothly around that number. that is what you want on the first day, especially a large ipo. >> will that hold in terms of large ipos, particularly technology ipos? many are looking for dropbox, spotify, are you looking for tech ipos? >> a year ago, we had zero ipos in the first quarter of 2016. this is our 13th this year in the first quarter, and we have more in march and april. it is not the big tech names, which is the premise of your question. those big tech names are watching closely what happens today, and it can alter plans, pull ipos forward or backwards. i take comfort that this ipo was very smooth and they got what many describe as a health evaluation.
>> do feel 2017 will be the year of yet more companies coming public? >> yes, absolutely. things can change. in august 2015, a very volatile day and the ipo market shot. i am not prognosticating. i'm saying the ipo's we are planning plus those in process is very high. >> youtube is going prime time. it announced a new service called youtube tv that will deliver tv channels to paying customers for $35 a month starting this spring. lucas shaw spoke to ceo of youtube at an event in los angeles. he started by asking her about the details of the new service. >> on youtube, we have a lot of demand for tv content. we think it is a great opportunity with the mobile phones because everyone is carrying a tv with them and
their pockets, but they are not using them as tvs, so we saw this opportunity to take this amazing tv content and make it available to generations that love content, but wanted on demand, watch it on any device. they want to not have the commitments currently required for tv, so we saw a big opportunity to bring the full tv experience to our audience. >> with all these tv networks, these are owned by companies. in the past, youtube has had a tortured relationship will fighting over piracy copies and things like that. did you have to make assurances about those topics? >> we actually work with all of the large broadcasters on the networks to bring that content onto youtube now. we have clips, shows, so we have had a good relationship with them, and they have seen the opportunity to use youtube as a mechanism to get more promotion for their shows, have time
♪ matt: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am matt miller. u.s.-mexico relations have been at the forefront of president trump's early days, immigration and trade have dominated news headlines. one of the more suggestive headlines came from mexico this week when the country warned it would cut off nafta talks if the u.s. proposed tariffs. >> i believe we need to share more information to get a better assessment of nafta benefits for the u.s. as you know, basically mexico is the second-largest buyer of u.s. commodities and manufacturing. the reality is that many
strategic sectors in the u.s. depend on nafta. sometimes when you look at numbers, they help you to understand better the realities of this. for instance, when nafta was signed and you look at manufacturing jobs, they remained constant through the years. they changed drastically in 2001 when china comes into the world trade is system. that happens to most of the country to have to face new competitors like china. now when you look at manufacturing in the u.s., manufacturing has been growing up in terms of value from 1970 -- from 1997-2015. u.s. manufacturing group by 38% in real terms, but has been going down because of technological development and competition with other regions of the world. >> we know mexicans are very upset with the president of the
united states. is there political support in mexico for a renegotiation of the treaty? >> in mexico, the treaty itself has been a very efficient tool to improve u.s.-mexico relationships. you are aware through history that u.s.-mexico relationship has not been very strong, but fortunately thank to nafta, it has changed drastically in the last 25 years. and today, mexicans feel part a strong part of the north american neighborhood and feel close to the u.s. people. i believe we many of us studied in u.s. universities. a lot of american tourists come to mexico. there are strong bonds between mexico and u.s. citizens. we are responsible of these good relations continue in the future, and one of the elements we have to defend his economic integration. >> you have been quite vocal
about your concern that the changed administration and u.s. could have an impact on global growth. what specifically do you see the impact being on bhp? >> on the one side, the benefit for business confidence that comes from the trump administration-based what is promised on tax, his desire to cut through some of the politics to get more investment going on in infrastructure, his general commitment to get growth going again in the united states, it can only be good for us. we don't sell a lot of products in the united states, but that will add to aggregate demand around the world. on the other hand, we are very anxious about the possibility that instead we could have bad leadership instead of good leadership on global free trade. free trade is the lifeblood of the economy and makes products cheaper for consumers, consumers
buy more, and there's a result, long-term economic growth. long-term economic growth is around 3%. if were going to continue on the journey to pull people out of poverty, we have to get the 4%, and that won't happen under protectionist leadership from the united states, so some good, but some pretty bloody awful. >> you said you were hoping to meet with the epa chief soon. what is the message that newmont would like to bring to the u.s. administration? >> what i have heard him say last week is that he is looking to make sure changes in regulations provide the certainty for businesses to be able to make transitions. if we want to make changes, that's fine to let's understand what we are trying to achieve, but let's do it in a logical way so we work our way towards it rather than trying to do it abruptly, so do it in a manner that recognizes the investments made, the impact -- you have to
look at that over all as well and see what the right path is to go forward. >> in much broader strokes, is trump good for gold? >> he was on election night, then it has gone in the other direction. we will see. we continue to watch where his administration comes in on different things. 40% of our business is in the u.s., but the other 60% is outside the u.s., so we pay attention to all the countries where we operate. >> 21,000, the dow just hit. your thoughts on that and what it means for public equities before talk about private equities? >> the market enjoys what the president is doing or talking about it, so the market is very high. obviously a lot of stocks, particular financial services areas, are up. private equity has benefited because when public equity goes up come in the violation of
private equity goes up as well. if you're buying things, it makes things more expensive, but this conference indicates that private equity is bullish about the economy. >> why is private equity so bullish? what has the president said or said he is going to do that makes people so enthusiastic? >> obviously people from all over the world are here. the united states is dominant in what the private equity world does, so the reason people are excited about it is they feel there will be less regulation of private equity in some ways, the animus to private equity might not be there. i think some people don't like private equity. i think they think that private equity people don't do great things, and so there is something that we are not as good as we think we are. the feeling is the administration will be focused on other things and not beating up on private equity, but generally an atmosphere that private equity is welcome into the financial community and the
deregulation out of washington and lower taxes would be favorable. >> so overall bullish view on the president from private equity. >> very bullish view from private equity. i have been here for 20 years and have not seen anything quite as bullish. >> one of the topics that has come up is infrastructure, something we have not heard a lot about. suddenly it is everywhere. how realistic is this $1 trillion figure he's talking about from your estimation? >> i think it is unlikely we will have it quickly go into effect. it takes a long time to build infrastructure, get congress to authorize it, and then where does the money come from. i think the money that comes back from u.s. companies overseas, that money could be repatriated and used for infrastructure. it might only be $200 billion, but to get $1 trillion takes a lot. one trillion dollars may take many years to get it done.
i think there will be public-private partnerships investing in infrastructure. i think the money is there, but in the old days, infrastructure was called porkbarrel and we are building bridges, dams, we don't need them. now we recognize we need these things, and is not called pork barrel, it is called infrastructure, and infrastructure is a word everybody likes. >> what ultimate figure could be spent on infrastructure and how is it going to be paid for? >> well, you know, i am not at all convinced they will be able to do much on infrastructure because you saw there was a subtle change of wording and what donald said last night about infrastructure. he had to the campaign had been saying his plan was for $1 trillion of infrastructure, and there is this subtle change that is now the plan is to enable $1 trillion of infrastructure,
which i think is something like a tax credit, then the scramble will be trying to get your private projects to count as infrastructure for that purpose. so i think they have already said, the administration has already said that the funding source they want to have for the program is this one time tax on repatriated foreign earnings. that puts a firm upper bound on how much it can be, and i think that is $100 billion to $150 billion cost to the government, so i think the details on that one might be smaller than 80 what the advocates hoped. >> a bit of a lift, record all morning, a january trade balance of $1.3 billion, a third of what was estimated. we were expecting $3.8 billion.
that follows on from the record trade balance back in december at $3.5 billion. some more details dropping, january imports rising 4% from a month earlier, exports falling 3% from a month earlier, so this is perhaps why that figure is coming in weaker than expected. the aussie dollar falling steeply off the back of that news, i qualify that, coming off a little bit. we were expecting a better number because we have seen iron or prices continue to surge, and that is what drove strong fourth gdp figures on wednesday. just to recap, that trade balance coming in far weaker than expected, still a surplus, but only $1.3 billion. ♪
>> an unhappy trading floor at deutsche bank, cutting bonuses by 80%. the previous year, deutsche bank cut the bonus pool by 17%. dan curtis created a custom index. these bars track the compensation of global markets and investment bank business as a percent of total compensation. it has fallen to 44% at the end of 2016. matt: there are 30,000 functions on the bloomberg, and we always enjoy showing you our favorite on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites as well. here is another function you will find useful, quic . it will take you to our quick takes where you can get context and insight into timely topics. here is a quick take from this week. ♪ >> time now for our bloomberg quick take where we provide context and background on issues of interest.
the central bank started cutting interest rates to near zero after the 2008 financial crisis. they thought things would gradually get back to normal. now they are wondering what normal means. rates are still super low and unlikely to come all the way back. the reason is the neutral rate of interest which stimulates the economy or cools it down -- in november, after donald trump election, u.s. bond yields rose, lifted by a promise of enormous tax cuts combined with higher spending on infrastructure. in the longer perspective, this rise is a blip after more than two decades of steadily falling rates. these low rates leave central ranks little or no room to cut again if stimulus is required. neutral interest rates have historically tracked economic growth, which is largely determined by productivity, and productivity is less than 1% the year since 1970 in the united states.
the climbing birth rates have -- declining birth rates have led to an increase in the ratio of workers to dependents. workers save more than dependents. at the same time, the falling price of machine and capital goods has kept spending on investments low and created a savings which has acted to further lower interest rates. here is the argument, unable to cut interest rates further, central banks have had to find other ways of stimulating demand, such as quantitative easing. fiscal stimulus proposed by president is another possibility. budget deficits push interest rates higher. matt: that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com along with the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for "bloomberg best" this week. i am matt miller from berlin. thank you for watching bloomberg television.
david: the live audience does not intimidate you, right? oprah: not a bit. [laughter] david: no? ok. you came from very modest circumstances. oprah: modest is not the word. david: very few people in the world are known by one name. oprah: they started me a campaign called "what is an oprah?" david: you are a big shareholder in weight watchers. oprah: that is a sign, when weight watchers says, let us help you. david: have you ever thought you could actually run for president? oprah: i thought, oh, gee, i don't have the experience. i don't know enough. i don't know and now i am thinking, oh? [laughter] >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way.